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The Classical Model: The Early Years

In: Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis

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  • Simon French

    (University of Warwick)

Abstract

Roger Cooke and his colleagues at the Delft University of Technology laid the foundations of the Classical Model for aggregating expert judgement in the 1980s. During 1985–1989, a research project funded by the Dutch Government saw the Classical Model developed and embedded in expert judgement procedures along with a Bayesian and a paired comparison method. That project and a subsequent working group report from the European Safety and Reliability Research and Development Association were instrumental in moving structured expert judgement procedures into the toolbox of risk analysts, particularly within Europe. As the number of applications grew, the Classical Model and its associated procedures came to dominate in applications. This chapter reflects on this early work and notes that almost all the principles and practices that underpin today’s applications were established in those early years.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon French, 2021. "The Classical Model: The Early Years," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Anca M. Hanea & Gabriela F. Nane & Tim Bedford & Simon French (ed.), Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis, chapter 0, pages 215-224, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:isochp:978-3-030-46474-5_9
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-46474-5_9
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