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Modeling the Impact of New HIV Prevention Technologies in Sub-Saharan Africa

In: Operations Research and Health Care Policy

Author

Listed:
  • John Stover

    (Futures Institute)

  • Carel Pretorius

    (Futures Institute)

  • Kyeen Andersson

    (Futures Institute)

Abstract

Research has shown that several new technologies can be effective in reducing the transmission of HIV infection. Male circumcision was shown to reduce susceptibility to new infection by about 60% in trials in 2005 and 2007. In 2009, a large scale trial of an HIV vaccine showed some protective benefits. Research results released in 2010 showed effectiveness of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis and topical pre-exposure prophylaxis at levels around 40%. When new technologies become available national policy makers are faced with questions about whether to implement them, how much they will cost and how they should be implemented. Funders face similar questions. We have developed computer models to aid in policy development and planning. These models are intended to investigate questions such as “What will the impact be in terms of infections averted?”, “How much would a new program cost?”, and “Would the new program be cost-effective?” This chapter discusses models for male circumcision, pre-exposure prophylaxis, and HIV vaccines and their applications to inform policy makers.

Suggested Citation

  • John Stover & Carel Pretorius & Kyeen Andersson, 2013. "Modeling the Impact of New HIV Prevention Technologies in Sub-Saharan Africa," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Gregory S. Zaric (ed.), Operations Research and Health Care Policy, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 179-199, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:isochp:978-1-4614-6507-2_9
    DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4614-6507-2_9
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