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Optimal Economic Growth Under Stochastic Environmental Impact: Sensitivity Analysis

In: Dynamic Systems, Economic Growth, and the Environment

Author

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  • Elena Rovenskaya

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

Abstract

In this work we present an approach toward the sensitivity analysis of optimal economic growth to a negative environmental impact driven by random natural hazards that damage the production output. We use a simplified model of the GDP growth. We assume that production leads to the increase of the atmospheric GHG provided investment in cleaning is insufficient. The hypothesis of the Poisson probability distribution of the frequency of natural hazards is used at the this research stage. We apply the standard utility function—the discounted integral consumption and construct an optimal investment policy in production and cleaning together with optimal GDP trajectories. We calibrate the model in the global scale and analyze the sensitivity of obtained optimal growth scenarios with respect to uncertain parameters of the Poisson distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Elena Rovenskaya, 2010. "Optimal Economic Growth Under Stochastic Environmental Impact: Sensitivity Analysis," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Tapio Palokangas & Alexander Tarasyev (ed.), Dynamic Systems, Economic Growth, and the Environment, pages 79-107, Springer.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:dymchp:978-3-642-02132-9_5
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-02132-9_5
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    Cited by:

    1. Elena Rovenskaya, 2011. "One-step Optimization Model of Warming-driven Damage of Economic Growth," DEGIT Conference Papers c016_062, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    2. Orlov, Sergey & Rovenskaya, Elena, 2022. "Optimal transition to greener production in a pro-environmental society," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).

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