Main Findings and Recommendations

This chapter summarises the main findings of the study and recommendations for formalising the shadow economy. First the chapter outlines the key causes of the shadow economy in Serbia and it then provides an estimate of the shadow economy in relation to GDP, estimates of various forms of the shadow economy in the sectors of businesses and entrepreneurs, and the businesses’ and entrepreneurs’ characteristics. This leads to an examination of the effects that formalising the shadow economy can have on the government budget and economic growth. The chapter then reviews the findings on the administrative and institutional capacities of the government institutions tasked with overseeing the operation of business entities. The policy recommendations that we propose are a set of preventive measures and incentives aimed at formalising the shadow economy which cover tax policy and regulation, labour market institutions, and the financial sector. The recommendations that entail building the administrative capacity of government bodies relate primarily to the institutions that oversee businesses with informal employees and/or that make and receive cash payments: the Tax Authority, the Labour Inspectorate, and the Market Inspectorate. The final part of the chapter provides the key recommendations for formalising the shadow economy for each of these areas, their sectoral coverage, the institutions responsible for conducting such measures, and the expected outcomes of their implementation.