Factors That Influence the Creation and Adoption of New Technology

At some time in the twenty-first century the United States will start the transition into an economy with no human work. After the inflection point, job destruction will be greater than job creation and overall employment will decline. Once the decline starts it will continue and human employment over the next several centuries will approach a very small fraction of current employment, perhaps even zero. This book deals with the transition, not the end result. Chapter 2 examines factors that affect the rate at which the journey towards the inflection point proceeds. The decline in employment is a result of decisions leading to the diffusion of automation innovations. The first topic to consider is the fact that bounded rational decision making is less than optimal. The work of Simon and various psychologists will be discussed. How advances in digital technology are creating innovations in bounded rational decision making is discussed in subsequent chapters. Innovations are frequently based on inventions that are based on the discovery of new knowledge. The topics of discovery, invention and innovation are pursued starting with their definitions. In the the nineteenth century the creation of the research university, the subsequent development of corporate applied research, and the public funding of basic research through the National Science Foundation have increased the rate of discovery, invention and innovation. Major innovations in production such as replaceable parts, Ford assembly line, lean and agile production, and corporate reorganization are considered as they provide the framework for automation innovations based on advancing digital technology. Also considered are innovations by consumers and government.