Economic Policy Uncertainty, Information Disclosure, and Corporate Debt Default Risk: Evidence from China

Preventing corporate debt default risk is a critical element in ensuring steady economic growth. Drawing on micro-level data from Shenzhen Stock Exchange listed companies between 2012 and 2023, this paper examines the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU), information disclosure, and corporate debt default risk. The findings show that EPU significantly increases default risk, while information disclosure effectively mitigates this effect, playing a negative moderating role. Furthermore, the heterogeneity analysis based on ownership structure reveals that although the amplifying effect of EPU on default risk is homogeneous, the mitigating role of information disclosure is more pronounced in non-state-owned enterprises. From a dynamic perspective, EPU exerts a “risk contraction effect” during periods of low volatility but a “cumulative amplification effect” during high-volatility phases. Meanwhile, information disclosure acts as a short-term buffer but may, in the long run, heighten market sensitivity and reinforce risk transmission. These results suggest that government authorities should prioritize policy stability, while enterprises should strengthen disclosure practices and enhance risk management to guard against default risks.