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Geopolitical Events and Economic Uncertainty in Crude Oil Market Fluctuations

In: Proceedings of the International Research Conference on Resilience for Sustainability: Management Practices and Strategies for the Future (IRC 2025)

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  • Leena Ajit Kaushal

    (Management Development Institute)

Abstract

This research explores the consequence of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) on the crude oil prices (COP) volatility subsequent to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, employing an econometric methodology that incorporates OLS regression, cointegration analysis, and VAR models. Analysis of monthly data spanning February 2022 to June 2024 indicates a robust positive correlation between GEPU and oil price volatility, with GEPU accounting for 52.7 percent of the volatility. Cointegration and VAR models are utilized to analyze non-stationary data, demonstrating a substantial long-term link between GEPU and COP volatility. Causal relationships over both near-term and extended periods time horizons are validated by the VECM. Findings indicate that geopolitical crises, as evidenced by indices like economic-policy-uncertainty, significantly impacts crude oil price dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Leena Ajit Kaushal, 2025. "Geopolitical Events and Economic Uncertainty in Crude Oil Market Fluctuations," Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research, in: Swaranjeet Arora & Tanzeem Hasnat & Praveen Gupta & Rekha Gupta & C. P. Gupta (ed.), Proceedings of the International Research Conference on Resilience for Sustainability: Management Practices and Strategies for the Future (IRC 2025), pages 118-128, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:advbcp:978-94-6463-860-8_9
    DOI: 10.2991/978-94-6463-860-8_9
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