Study on the Impact of Value-Added Tax (VAT) Carryover Tax Credit Policy on the Capital Turnover of High-Tech Enterprises - An Empirical Analysis Based on Chinese A-Share Listed Companies from 2016 to 2022

As a core measure of recent tax reduction and fee reduction policies, the VAT carryover tax credit reform has significantly influenced market entities’ behaviors by optimizing corporate cash flow. This paper takes Chinese A-share listed companies from 2016 to 2022 as samples, focuses on high-tech enterprises, and constructs a difference-in-differences (DID) model based on the policy shock of the Notice on Tax Policies Concerning the Refund of Partial Industries’ VAT Carryover Tax Credits in 2018 (Caishui [2018] No. 70), to evaluate the impact of carryover tax credits on the capital turnover of high-tech enterprises and its mechanism. The study finds that the carryover tax credit policy significantly improves corporate capital turnover rates. The paper further proposes policy recommendations: first, implementing “precise tax refunds” by lowering tax refund thresholds for high-tech industries; second, establishing a “tax refund-research and development (R&D)” linkage mechanism to guide refunded funds into innovative activities; third, optimizing the policy's dynamic adjustment framework to balance fiscal burdens across regions. The research conclusions provide micro-level evidence and decision-making references for improving the VAT system and promoting the innovation-driven development strategy.