Predictive Modeling of Corporate Social Responsibility’s Impact on Financial Performance in U.S. Oil and Gas Firms

This research develops and evaluates predictive models to assess how corporate social responsibility (CSR) expenditures influence the financial performance of oil and gas firms in the United States. Although maximizing shareholder wealth remains a primary goal, it frequently conflicts with the interests of other stakeholders. As a result, incorporating CSR principles into corporate strategies has become increasingly important. Using pooled regression models, this study builds and tests five predictive models to identify the most effective in forecasting financial outcomes linked to CSR initiatives. The research analyzes panel data from the top 100 oil and gas firms listed in the S&P 500 between 2018 and 2022. The models predict key financial indicators, including revenue growth, profitability, return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), and Tobin’s Q. Preliminary findings indicate that some models accurately forecast firm value in relation to CSR investments, while the effects of CSR on ROE, ROA, profitability, and revenue growth remain inconclusive. This study contributes to the broader discussion on CSR’s strategic importance by utilizing predictive modeling to evaluate its financial implications.