Prediction And Contribution of Electrical & Electronics (E&E) Industry Towards Malaysia Gross Domestic Product (GDP) By 2030

Malaysia’s Electrical and Electronics (E&E) industry is pivotal, significantly contributing to national income through Gross Domestic Product (GDP), exports, and job creation. This industry is booming for drastic future expansion due to the Industrial Revolution, IR 4.0, and towards IR 5.0, with a high global demand for semiconductor chips from electric vehicles, artificial intelligence (AI), and other related sectors. Therefore, this study aims to predict the E&E industry sales value by 2030 and its subsequent contribution to GDP, which is crucial in future E&E infrastructure development and national economic planning of policy-making to fulfill the global demand. Six forecasting techniques were used: Decomposition, Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing, Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA), Time Series Regression, and Machine Learning (Artificial Neural Network and Support Vector Machine). The performances were evaluated using three error measures: RMSE, GRMSE, and MAPE. The findings indicated that the Time Series Regression model predicts a steady increase in Malaysia’s E&E sales value and E&E industry GDP by 2030, indicating robust growth and significant economic contribution. By 2030, the E&E industry is expected to contribute over 8% to Malaysia’s GDP, up from 7% in 2021. This aligns with the National Industrial Master Plan 2030, aiming for a 6.5% annual growth in the manufacturing sector, highlighting the E&E industry’s pivotal role in driving economic growth.