A Study of the Impact of Resident Income on Population Growth in China

Exploring the crucial effect of residents’ income on population growth in the context of the gradual disappearance of China’s “demographic dividend” and the aging of the population. In this paper, we use a univariate linear regression model to explore the impact of residents’ income on population growth based on Chinese panel data from 2005 to 2023, and further adopt the robustness test and heterogeneity analysis method. This paper draws the following conclusions:(1)China’s total population is basically growing, but after 2022, the growth trend basically disappears.(2) After 1992, the population of the countryside began to show a sharp decline, while the population of towns and cities underwent a significant increase.(3) The total population at the end of the year shows a positive correlation with disposable income per capita, with the rate of growth of the total population at the end of the year approaching zero after a very high level of disposable income per capita.(4) For population growth, the current income of Chinese residents has a positive impact on it in general.(5) China’s residents’ income has the greatest impact on the increase in population growth in the eastern region, followed by the western region, with a smaller impact on the central region and a negative impact on the northeastern region.(6) The boost of disposable income per capita for all residents to the year-end resident population is largest in 2008-2019, slightly smaller before the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, and less pronounced after the outbreak of the new Crown pneumonia epidemic.(7) For the urban population, the higher the income of the inhabitants, the larger the population, while for the rural population, the higher the disposable income per inhabitant, the smaller the population.(8) Urban incomes contribute more to population growth than rural incomes.