Based on Binary Marginal Mechanism—The Impact of EU Anti-subsidy Investigation on China’s Electric Vehicle Exports and Suggestions for Countermeasures

Anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations are the most important means to maintain fair competition and market order in international trade. In recent years, the global competition in the electric vehicle industry has been fierce, and China has taken a leading position in the supply chain of the electric vehicle industry. Since 2023, China has surpassed Japan to become the world’s largest exporter of automobiles, especially electric vehicle exports, which have become an important driving force for China’s automotive exports. The EU is highly concerned about the explosive growth of China’s electric vehicle exports, believing that China’s overcapacity in electric vehicles comes from government subsidies, and believes that the large number of Chinese electric vehicles entering the EU market will pose a threat to the development of its related industries. The paper first analyzes the development of Chinese electric vehicles in the European Union, and then evaluates the impact of the EU’s “anti subsidy” measures based on the binary marginal mechanism. It analyzes the dual impact on China’s electric vehicle export intensity margin and expansion margin, and finally proposes relevant countermeasures and suggestions.