Determinants of Credit Risk under Basel II Accord: Case of Vietnam Banking Sector

Research purpose: In this research study, the credit risk of the Vietnamese commercial banking system is assessed by investigating its underlying determinants. From there, propose solutions to support risk management in Vietnam banking sector. Research motivation: The research propose the new measurement towards credit risk of Vietnam Banking sector, which include not only Expected Loss but also Unexpected Loss factors based on the Basel II Accord. This new measurement method is different from previous research such as using non-performing loans by Chaibi and Ftiti (2015). Based on the methodology and results obtained, this study has been compared with state-of-the-art research relating to the factors which have impacts on the credit risk of Banking sector, specifically in Vietnam proportion updated by time. Research design, approach, and method: Applying a quantitative research method using regression models, this study integrates the Basel II Accord to identify factors impacting the expected loss and unexpected loss values. The data used in the study comes from both primary and secondary sources, which spanned from 2010 to 2021. Main findings: Using measurements of the “Expected Loss” and “Unexpected Loss” metrics aligned with the Basel II Accord, the findings reveal that these two indicators can be mainly explained by 3 bank performance factors, including “Asset Composition”, “Structure Owner”, “Bank Size”, and a macroeconomic factor, “Exchange Rate”. Practical/managerial implications: Large banks sustain viability through sufficient capital reserves, risk management, and international peer tracking. Stress testing across exchange rate scenarios and diverse loan portfolio currency types mitigate exchange rate risk. Prudent loan-to-assets ratio, diversified loans, and vigilant credit assessment alleviate concentration risk. Active monitoring of macroeconomics, internal changes, and quantified impact safeguards against expected and unexpected losses, fostering an adaptable risk management framework.