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Investigating the Correlation between Fluctuations in the U.S. Stock Industry Index and U.S. Import-Export Volume Fluctuations using the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) Method

In: Proceedings of the 2023 International Conference on Finance, Trade and Business Management (FTBM 2023)

Author

Listed:
  • Ziyue Xu

    (The University of Nottingham Ningbo China, Faculty of Science and Engineering)

Abstract

Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic and the global economic turmoil, the total amount of US imports and exports and the various indexes of US stocks have fluctuated greatly in recent years. As one of the largest economies in the world, the fluctuation of the economic situation of the United States shows the global economic situation to a certain extent, and the total amount of import and export is one of the important indicators. From the theoretical research, there is an indirect economic relationship between the total import and export volume and the industry index, and the fluctuation correlation between the two is supported by economic theory. From the empirical research, this paper uses Log Return and Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) model to analyze and visualize the total volume of US imports and exports and ten typical industry indexes of US stocks. It is found that there is a uniform correlation between the trend of various indexes and the trend of total import and export volume, and there is a correlation law between them. However, there is no industry that is extremely close to the development trend of total imports and exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Ziyue Xu, 2023. "Investigating the Correlation between Fluctuations in the U.S. Stock Industry Index and U.S. Import-Export Volume Fluctuations using the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) Method," Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research, in: Amalendu Bhunia & Rubi Binti Ahmad & Yifeng Zhu (ed.), Proceedings of the 2023 International Conference on Finance, Trade and Business Management (FTBM 2023), pages 383-391, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:advbcp:978-94-6463-298-9_42
    DOI: 10.2991/978-94-6463-298-9_42
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