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Study on the Influence of Maximum Magnitude Uncertainty to the Seismic Hazard in North China

In: Proceedings of the 10th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention (RAC 2022)

Author

Listed:
  • Changlong Li

    (China Earthquake Administration, Institute of Geophysics)

Abstract

This paper summarizes the methods for considering the uncertainty of the upper magnitude limit in several domestic and foreign studies on seismic hazard and mapping, analyzes the influence of the uncertainty of the upper limit of magnitude in the potential source area on the earthquake hazard, and provides a new generation of seismic hazard maps. A proposed scheme for considering the uncertainty of the upper magnitude limit is presented. The conclusions drawn are that compared with several international earthquake risk studies, the estimation of the upper limit of the magnitude by the potential source model of the Seismic Hazard Map of China (2016) is conservative; when the upper limit of the potential source magnitude is between 5.5 and 6.5, the impact of the adjustment plan on seismic hazard is between several international studies on seismic hazard, which is generally reasonable; for the original potential source of magnitude 7, the increased occurrence rate of earthquakes with magnitudes 7-7.5 is adjusted to 10-5, the calculated seismic hazard increment is close to the consideration scheme of several international seismic hazard studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Changlong Li, 2023. "Study on the Influence of Maximum Magnitude Uncertainty to the Seismic Hazard in North China," Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research, in: Sen Qiao & Hongbin Cao & Aiwen Liu & Xueliang Chen & Tiefei Li (ed.), Proceedings of the 10th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention (RAC 2022), pages 41-46, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:advbcp:978-94-6463-194-4_7
    DOI: 10.2991/978-94-6463-194-4_7
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