The Impact of Climate Change on Grape Production in Indonesia

The production of Grape of Indonesia in 2017 reached 11,734 t but in 2018 it decreased by 7.39% to 10,867 t. The decline in grape production on a national scale is influenced by the amount of production in grape’s central region. One of grape’s central region in Indonesia that has experienced a decline in production since 2015 is Palu City. This study aimed to identify the cause of the decline of grape’s production in Palu City, from the climate change perspective. The data used are annual grape’s production data (ton), annual rainfall anomaly data (mm), and El Nino- La Nina existences data for 15-year. The data was processed using a quantitative descriptive method to obtain the relationship between rainfall anomalies during El Nino, La Nina, and normal years with grape’s production in Palu City. The results show that there is a very strong relationship (r = 0.86) and the positive direction relationship between the rainfall anomaly variable and grape’s production variable in El Nino period, meaning that when there is a rainfall decreasing in that period, grape’s production also decreases. After that, there is a sufficient relationship (r = 0.50) and the positive direction relationship between them in La Nina period, meaning that when there is a rainfall increasing in La Nina period, grape’s production also increases. Finally, there is a strong relationship (r = -0.72) and the negative direction relationship in the normal year period, meaning that when there is a rainfall increasing during Non El Nino or La Nina period, the grape production actually decreases. This result is an indication that grapes are a comodity that is sensitive to climate change. Deficit or surplus of rainfall excessively in areas that are planted with grapes, could have an impact on decreasing grape production.