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Analyzing the Suitability of Time Series and Associative Forecasting Methods for Cotton Bud Product

In: Proceedings of the 4th Asia Pacific Management Research Conference (APMRC 2022)

Author

Listed:
  • Siti Cahya Santini

    (Telkom University, International Business Administration Department)

  • Devilia Sari

    (Telkom University, International Business Administration Department)

  • Lidya Nur Assifa

    (Bandung Institute of Technology, Faculty of Earth Science and Technology)

Abstract

At PT DBAS, the main problem is the problem of BABY-GRADE-A supply/demand. If a production shortage occurs, the company loses sales leading to overwork and costs. Likewise, suppose there is overproduction, even though the product is durable with a more extended expiration date. In that case, warehousing problems may arise, such as limited warehouses, higher inventory costs, damaged products, and environmental issues. Thus, this study is conducted to discover a suitable forecasting method for BABY-GRADE-A to forecast its future demand and sales figures of BABY-GRADE-A in 2021. This research uses a quantitative descriptive method by comparing the measurement of sales data errors in the time series and polynomial regression methods. To conclude, the most suitable forecasting method for BABY-GRADE-A is Polynomial Regression. MSE and MAPE resulting from the technique are 6,103.18 and 9.07%, respectively. Then, the forecast demand in 2021 is predicted to be 11,426 cartons. Significantly, several aspects should be considered by the company and future researchers, such as market change, marketing strategy, inventory management, and other operations activities.

Suggested Citation

  • Siti Cahya Santini & Devilia Sari & Lidya Nur Assifa, 2023. "Analyzing the Suitability of Time Series and Associative Forecasting Methods for Cotton Bud Product," Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research, in: Eva Hotnaidah Saragih & Rike Penta Sitio & Rosita Fitriyani & Dhinar Silalahi & Yeneneh Tamirat Nega (ed.), Proceedings of the 4th Asia Pacific Management Research Conference (APMRC 2022), pages 259-268, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:advbcp:978-94-6463-076-3_19
    DOI: 10.2991/978-94-6463-076-3_19
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