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Forecasting the Yield Curve with Nelson-Siegel Model: Chinese Evidence

In: Proceedings of the 2022 2nd International Conference on Financial Management and Economic Transition (FMET 2022)

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  • Zhanyi Zhang

    (Yunnan University, School of Economics)

Abstract

The Dynamic Nelson-Siegel model is commonly used to forecast interest rate curves, but the way its parameters are estimated has so far been an issue worth investigating. In this paper, the performance of state space model is compared with that of two-step method in estimating parameters. Based on Chinese government bond data, this paper explores whether state space model has higher forecasting progress and better forecasting performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhanyi Zhang, 2023. "Forecasting the Yield Curve with Nelson-Siegel Model: Chinese Evidence," Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research, in: Vilas Gaikar & Min Hou & Sikandar Ali Qalati (ed.), Proceedings of the 2022 2nd International Conference on Financial Management and Economic Transition (FMET 2022), pages 283-290, Springer.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:advbcp:978-94-6463-054-1_32
    DOI: 10.2991/978-94-6463-054-1_32
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