US–China Trade War and Indonesia’s Food Security: Evidence from Household Microsimulation

This study investigates the impact of the US–China trade war on Indonesia’s trade dynamics and food security using a microsimulation approach. By modeling 500 simulated households and projecting outcomes from 2020 to 2045, the research analyzes how tariff-induced shocks to staple commodities affect household welfare, food affordability, and trade flows. Results reveal that tariff shocks consistently increase food insecurity, particularly for rice, vegetable oil, wheat, and horticultural products. Notably, food security outcomes converge across optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic scenarios, underscoring the structural nature of global trade disruptions. Quintile-based analysis shows that while the poorest households remain persistently vulnerable, the most pronounced increases in food insecurity occur among middle and upper-middle-income groups, challenging conventional assumptions about vulnerability being concentrated only among the poor. At the commodity level, impacts are heterogeneous: sugar and chicken benefit from export gains in some simulations, whereas wheat, milk, and rice demonstrate heightened volatility and dependency on imports. These findings highlight the broad-based and long-term consequences of global trade conflicts for Indonesia’s food system. Policy recommendations include diversifying import sources, strengthening domestic agricultural productivity, expanding social protection to middle-income groups, and enhancing regional cooperation. The study underscores the importance of forward-looking, inclusive, and adaptive strategies to safeguard Indonesia’s food security in the context of global uncertainties and in pursuit of Indonesia Emas 2045.