The Influence of Inflation, Exchange Rates, and Investor Sentiment on The Stock Price

This Study investigates the influence of inflation, exchange rate fluctuations, and investor sentiment on the stock price index of oil and gas companies listed in the LQ45 during the 2020–2024 period, with special reference to the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Employing a quantitative method with a causal–comparative design, the research utilizes secondary data obtained from Bank Indonesia, Badan Pusat Statistik, and Investing.com, while investor sentiment is measured using media-based and perception-based indicators. The data were analyzed using multiple linear regression (Ordinary Least Squares/OLS) with diagnostic tests to ensure model validity. The results reveal that inflation does not exert a significant effect on the stock price index, whereas exchange rate fluctuations and investor sentiment both show positive and significant impacts. Simultaneous testing confirms that the three variables jointly influence stock price movements. These findings highlight that external factors—particularly exchange rate volatility and psychological reactions of investors—play a more dominant role than domestic inflationary pressures in shaping the performance of oil and gas stocks. This implies that investors should closely monitor currency fluctuations and market sentiment when making investment decisions, especially during periods of geopolitical uncertainty. Policymakers are advised to maintain ex-change rate stability and manage market expectations to strengthen the resilience of Indonesia’s capital market. Future research could extend the scope by including other macroeconomic variables, longer observation periods, or advanced sentiment analysis techniques to provide a more comprehensive understanding of stock market dynamics.