“Belt and Road” and the Role of Third Parties: A Geopolitical Analysis of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway

The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway reveals the general rule of intrinsic logic for geopolitical strategic games within the Eurasian space during its construction, which serves as an adept project node under the Belt and Road Initiative in Central Asia. The paper develops a 3D interactive analysis framework of the “core actors-third-party role-outcome delivery” based on close interactions among China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, while studying the functional modes and influence mechanisms of third-party actors, including Russia, the US, and Europe. The research argues that under the “strategic corridor construction+export of capacity advantages” mode driven, China advances project implementation by flexible financing, full-life-cycle technical support and policy strategies adapting to resistance; Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are stuck in a dual dilemma of “development demands or risk concerns”, both prioritizing national sovereignty in face of big-power competition; Russia shifts from “strategic obstruction” early to maintain its leadership in operation of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) to more “tactical adjustments” after restructuring resources following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which indicates a balance between geopolitical interests and practical constraints; other third-party forces constitute a multi-faceted role system involving dynamics such as “intervention, cooperation and wait-and-see”, impactee together on project process. The involvement of third-party forces has facilitated the transformation process of the geopolitical pattern of Central Asia. To some extent, it gained practical experience for the high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative.