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Does a Public Pension Improve Rural Livelihoods?

In: Proceedings of the 2026 2nd International Conference on Data Mining and Project Management (DMPM 2026)

Author

Listed:
  • Ziyun Wang

    (Hainan Vocational University of Science and Technology, School of Accounting)

  • Zhe Li

    (City University of Macau, Faculty of Finance)

  • Wenze Xiong

    (University of Auckland, School of Business)

Abstract

This paper evaluates the impact of the New Rural Social Pension Insurance (NRSP) pilot on rural income and consumption in China. Using provincial panel data for 2000 to 2021, we estimate a difference-in-differences model with province and year fixed effects as well as province-specific linear trends. In the analysis, any province with a raw pilot start before 2009 is recoded to 2009 in order to align treatment timing with the official launch of the NRSP. Under this policy-consistent timing rule, the preferred specification shows that the NRSP pilot is associated with increases of approximately 39 per cent in rural per capita disposable income and 32 per cent in rural per capita consumption expenditure. Richer fiscal and rural-development controls leave the positive association intact, and short-run coefficients are also statistically significant. Supplementary province-year financial regressions based on county-aggregated deposit and loan balances do not provide statistically precise evidence on the savings or debt-repayment channel. The study therefore offers policy-relevant macro evidence while clarifying the identification limits that remain under a more historically consistent treatment coding.

Suggested Citation

  • Ziyun Wang & Zhe Li & Wenze Xiong, 2026. "Does a Public Pension Improve Rural Livelihoods?," Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research, in: Ljiljana Trajkovic & José Alfredo F. Costa & Zaher Al Aghbari & Nor Azman Ismail & Dariusz Jacek Jak (ed.), Proceedings of the 2026 2nd International Conference on Data Mining and Project Management (DMPM 2026), pages 196-202, Springer.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:advbcp:978-94-6239-689-0_19
    DOI: 10.2991/978-94-6239-689-0_19
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