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The Rise of Peripheral Economies under Geopolitical Conflict and Supply Chain Restructuring as Evidenced by a Quasi-Natural Experiment in Vietnam

In: Proceedings of the 2026 11th International Conference on Financial Innovation and Economic Development (ICFIED 2026)

Author

Listed:
  • Yuxuan Zhang

    (Bangor College, Central South University of Forestry and Technology)

  • Yangxin Wang

    (Bangor College, Central South University of Forestry and Technology)

Abstract

Against the backdrop of deglobalization and intensified great power competition, global supply chains are undergoing profound structural adjustments. Using the latest cross-country panel data from Wind, this paper treats the 2018 US-China trade friction as an exogenous shock, employing the Difference-in-Differences (DID) method with Driscoll-Kraay robust standard errors to evaluate the net effect on Vietnam’s economic growth as an “alternative manufacturing base.” The findings indicate: The trade war significantly promoted Vietnam’s economic growth, increasing its real GDP per capita by approximately 15.7% relative to the counterfactual scenario; Dynamic effect tests show that this dividend is persistent and cumulative, peaking in 2022, verifying the time-lag effect of industrial chain transfer; Placebo tests further rule out the interference of global common shocks. This study suggests that during periods of rising geopolitical uncertainty, peripheral economies with strong absorption capacity can achieve catch-up growth through the “friend-shoring” of supply chains.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuxuan Zhang & Yangxin Wang, 2026. "The Rise of Peripheral Economies under Geopolitical Conflict and Supply Chain Restructuring as Evidenced by a Quasi-Natural Experiment in Vietnam," Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research, in: Xiongfeng Pan & Huaping Sun & Abdul Rauf & Md Rabiul Islam & Liew Chee Yoong (ed.), Proceedings of the 2026 11th International Conference on Financial Innovation and Economic Development (ICFIED 2026), pages 631-636, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:advbcp:978-94-6239-642-5_62
    DOI: 10.2991/978-94-6239-642-5_62
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