The Dynamic Impact of Rice Production and Harvested Area on Agricultural Product Prices During COVID-19

The Covid-19 pandemic has caused several economic conditions to experience obstacles, especially related to the distribution of rice to the community. Indirectly this can have an impact on the availability of the selling price of rice to the community. The purpose of this article is to analyze the events that occurred by providing the price of rice during the Covid-19 pandemic in East Java Province. The method used is parametric quantitative. The analysis used is Vector Auto Regression using secondary data from the Central Statistics Agency of East Java Province and the Department of Agriculture and Food Security of East Java Province. The findings in this study are that there is a pattern in the same direction between rice production and the selling price of rice during the pandemic. It is developed that production so far is also due to the supply chain sector that must be supported so that distribution patterns are not hampered. The social restrictions issued by the central government are quite a challenge in the distribution of rice commodities which have become the needs of the general public so far. In addition, the harvested area has an inversely proportional impact on the current rice price. It was recorded that during the 2020–2021 period, there was a decrease which had an impact on the increase in the selling price of rice. Government policies need to provide limitations on the availability of harvested area to ensure the continuity of the production process is maintained to provide benefits both from the producer and consumer side.