Climate Variability and Arabica Coffee Production in Uganda

This study aimed at assessing the effect of climate change and climate variability on Arabica coffee production. To achieve these objectives, the study assessed the historical and forecasted precipitation and temperature patterns under the three emission scenarios of RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5. Questionnaires and key informant interviews were employed to gather information on the determinants of farmers’ choice of adaptation techniques. Gridded datasets of observed and modeled rainfall and temperature data from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) were used to assess the historical and forecasted patterns of rainfall and temperature. The research findings revealed that climate change will negatively affect coffee production. The temperature will increase by 0.5 °C for RCP 2.6, 1.7 °C for RCP 4.5, and 4.6 °C for RCP 8.5. Such temperature changes will lead to coffee flower abortion and early ripening of coffee beans, and areas suitable for the growth of coffee will reduce. Arabica coffee farmers could be forced to move up the mountains for favorable temperatures and this will, in turn, affect the quality of Arabica coffee and farmers could also be forced to switch to the production of other cash crops. Results also indicate that farmers are employing different techniques to adapt to climate change. 41.07% of the respondents use intercropping as an adaption technique followed by agroforestry at 34.40%.