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Business Confidence and the Business Cycle in South Africa

In: Business Cycles and Structural Change in South Africa

Author

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  • L. H. Binge

    (Stellenbosch University)

Abstract

Business confidence indicators are widely used leading indicators of economic activity. A large international literature has also investigated the potential role of low confidence in shaping economic outcomes. It is therefore important to measure business confidence as accurately as possible. The authors use the microdata from the BER’s business tendency surveys to create new composite indicators of business confidence for South Africa. The indicators are refined by incorporating more survey information and applying a consistent weighting procedure. The authors demonstrate a significant positive relationship between confidence and real economic activity, the consistent timing of this relationship, and that it remains significant after taking other variables into account. The confidence indicators therefore contain useful information about current and future economic developments.

Suggested Citation

  • L. H. Binge, 2020. "Business Confidence and the Business Cycle in South Africa," Advances in African Economic, Social and Political Development, in: Willem H. Boshoff (ed.), Business Cycles and Structural Change in South Africa, pages 237-263, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:aaechp:978-3-030-35754-2_8
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-35754-2_8
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    Cited by:

    1. Ewert Kleynhans & Clive Coetzee, 2021. "Regional Business Confidence as Early Indicator of Regional Economic Growth," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 19(1 (Spring), pages 27-48.

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