The Economic Dynamics of European Union Enlargements: A Call to Arms

This chapter discusses the theoretical and econometric literatures on European Enlargements and intends to be a call to arms for economists to be more involved in the next (expected to be Ukraine-led) enlargement. It is organized into three parts. The first identifies what could be the key components of an economist’s conceptual framework to understand EU Enlargements. It identifies three theoretical strands (on clubs, integration, and convergence) that are well-known, well-developed, and highly esteemed (Nobel winning) by the profession. The second part focuses on context and implementation: it provides a brief historical overview of the four enlargements so far (i.e., Northern, Southern, Scandinavian, and Eastern) and distils three main and not yet fully appreciated lessons from this history. The third part discusses the efforts to estimate the net economic benefits from EU enlargements. It documents the substantial heterogeneity at both enlargement and country levels. The chapter concludes with suggestions for an ambitious nine-point future policy-oriented research agenda.