IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/pal/psmchp/978-3-032-25364-4_17.html

Modeling Potential Flood Occurrence under Climate-Related Variables in Kilifi Coastal County, Kenya

Author

Listed:
  • Eline Nyiransengiyumva

    (University of Cape Coast, Centre for Coastal Management, Africa Centre of Excellence in Coastal Resilience (ACECoR)
    University of Cape Coast, Department of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences (DFAS))

  • Richard Adade

    (University of Cape Coast, Centre for Coastal Management, Africa Centre of Excellence in Coastal Resilience (ACECoR))

  • Noble Kwame Asare

    (University of Cape Coast, Department of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences (DFAS))

  • Precious Agbeko Dzorgbe Mattah

    (University of Cape Coast, Centre for Coastal Management, Africa Centre of Excellence in Coastal Resilience (ACECoR)
    University of Cape Coast, Department of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences (DFAS))

Abstract

Among all natural disasters, floods pose some of the greatest economic and social challenges worldwide. Their frequency are projected to rise due to changes in key flood-predictor variables, with low-lying regions such as Kilifi in Kenya being particularly vulnerable. Increasing flood occurrences in these areas also threaten the sustainability of the coastal blue economy. This study aimed to analyze and predict flood occurrences in the Kilifi coastal area, influenced by climate-related variables, from 1990 to 2023. Time series techniques, including the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, correlation matrix analysis, and linear regression modeling, were employed. The results indicated strong positive correlations between flood occurrence and climate-related variables, suggesting that increases in temperature, precipitation, sea-level rise, and river discharge are associated with heightened flood frequency. Projections indicate that flood events may increase to 11 per year by 2050. This paper provides valuable insights into future flood risk management and improves the understanding of flooding dynamics in Kilifi.

Suggested Citation

  • Eline Nyiransengiyumva & Richard Adade & Noble Kwame Asare & Precious Agbeko Dzorgbe Mattah, 2026. "Modeling Potential Flood Occurrence under Climate-Related Variables in Kilifi Coastal County, Kenya," Palgrave Studies in Maritime Economics,, Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:psmchp:978-3-032-25364-4_17
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-032-25364-4_17
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a
    for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:psmchp:978-3-032-25364-4_17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.