Conversion: A Theoretical Framework

This extensive review of the processes of armament and disarmament since 1945 and of the economic, the defence policy and the industrial approaches to conversion in the major Western industrialised countries had two main objectives. First, an evaluation of the dynamics of the arms race and the prospects for disarmament would set the main Western countries with indigenous defence industries in their international context. Second, a thorough grasp of the structure of Western defence industries and of the economics of disarmament and conversion makes possible an initial assessment of the scope for conversion in any advanced Western democracy. The first objective has already been achieved. It is the aim of this chapter to meet the second objective by providing a theoretical framework from which a preliminary view can be formed on the prospects for conversion. The need for such a model arises from the fact that earlier works, notably that of Melman and the 1981 UN report, tended to concentrate on what was required for a conversion programme to be successfully implemented and so, from this positive perspective, almost inadvertently overemphasised the degree of autonomy involved in conversion planning.