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North Sea Oil and Manufacturing Output

In: Monetarism in the United Kingdom


  • John Kay


In a previous article (Forsyth and Kay, 1980) Peter Forsyth and I argued that the growth of British oil output necessarily implied some readjustment in the structure of onshore domestic production. That readjustment implied a contraction in manufacturing output and a growth in demand for the products of non-tradeable sectors of the economy. Manufacturing output in Britain did in fact fall by 15 per cent in 1980, a decline unprecedented in post-war experience. It was never our purpose to argue for an oil-based theory of economic history, and many other factors were at work in explaining the economic developments of 1980. It is, nevertheless, our contention that a significant part of that decline was the product of responses to changes in relative output prices brought about by changes in the structure of production, i.e. reflected changes in the real economy rather than monetary factors; that these changes are permanent rather than temporary in incidence; and that they were essentially inescapable.

Suggested Citation

  • John Kay, 1984. "North Sea Oil and Manufacturing Output," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Brian Griffiths & Geoffrey E. Wood (ed.), Monetarism in the United Kingdom, pages 185-199, Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-1-349-06284-3_12
    DOI: 10.1007/978-1-349-06284-3_12

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