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Is There an Electional Cycle? A Comparative Study of National Accounts

In: Measurement in Public Choice

Author

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  • Martin Paldam

    (University of Aarhus)

Abstract

This study covers three component series (current growth, real growth and growth in implicit price deflators) for eight main national accounts series for 17 OECD countries. When a government is defined as “stable” if it has a parliamentary majority and if it rules throughout a normal electional period, 49 stable governments are found in the 17 countries between 1948 and 1975. Subsequently, a test is made for all component series in order to see whether each moves in a systematic way during the average stable government period. Data are sufficiently numerous to prove a cycle, even though it turns out to be fairly weak. The cycle does not follow the pattern most often claimed, and to a certain extent it appears to be imported through foreign trade prices. Nevertheless, a policy-generated cycle clearly exists.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Paldam, 1981. "Is There an Electional Cycle? A Comparative Study of National Accounts," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Steinar Strøm (ed.), Measurement in Public Choice, pages 182-201, Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-1-349-05090-1_13
    DOI: 10.1007/978-1-349-05090-1_13
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