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The Great Moderation and the unravelling of a Great Myth

In: Profiting from Monetary Policy

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  • Thomas Aubrey

Abstract

In June 2007, investors’ aggregated view of the value of financial assets in both equity and credit markets demonstrated little sign that the economy was about to collapse, resulting in massive capital destruction. Economic forecasts across the board remained robust, from central banks through to financial market practitioners in the banking and fund management sectors. Equity valuations were fore-casting strong profit growth with the S&P 500 in July 2007 above the dot com boom levels of July 2000. Moreover, the market’s perception of credit risk was at an all-time low, with countries like Greece considered not much riskier than Germany (Figure 1.1).

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Aubrey, 2013. "The Great Moderation and the unravelling of a Great Myth," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Profiting from Monetary Policy, chapter 0, pages 10-31, Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-1-137-28970-4_2
    DOI: 10.1057/9781137289704_2
    as

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