The Output Bias of Technological Change

Japanese agriculture experienced a drastic change in its output mix during the last four decades of the 20th century, 1957–97. This change was caused mainly by a remarkable growth in livestock production, as shown in Table 5.1. The value of livestock production almost doubled between 1960 and 2004; it reached its peak in 1990, at which point it was 2.3 times as large as in 1960. In contrast, crop production was stagnant for the same period; although it increased slightly between 1960 and 1970, it turned out to be consistently decreasing after that. This pattern of crop production was mainly due to the relative decline in rice production. The value of rice production decreased consistently between 1960 (3.8 billion yen) and 2004 (2.2 billion yen); the share of rice in total agricultural production declined from 37.7 per cent in 1960 to 22.8 per cent in 2004. On the other hand, the value of livestock production increased consistently from 1.4 billion yen in 1960 to 2.8 billion yen in 2004, which was greater than that of rice production. The share of livestock in total agricultural production increased substantially, from 13.6 per cent in 1960 to 28.5 per cent in 2004. Livestock production is now more important, at least in value terms, than rice production in Japanese agriculture.