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The NAIRU, Potential Output, and the Kalman Filter: A Survey and Method of Estimation

In: Money, Capital Formation and Economic Growth

Author

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  • Masanori Amano

    (Chiba University)

Abstract

The concepts of NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) and potential output have received increasing attention recently as the rate of inflation has occupied a higher position in monetary policy discussion. This seems particularly true as more central banks of various economies regard inflation as a main targeting variable in their policy operations (Bernanke and Mishkin (1997)). For, if the central bank can correctly forecast the future course of the NAIRU and if it can steer the economy to that position, then the policy authority can obtain a stable rate of inflation. In addition, if it can control the growth of money supply, at least in the medium-term horizon, the rate of inflation of the economy would be controlled at a low and stable level.

Suggested Citation

  • Masanori Amano, 2013. "The NAIRU, Potential Output, and the Kalman Filter: A Survey and Method of Estimation," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Money, Capital Formation and Economic Growth, chapter 4, pages 59-79, Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-1-137-28183-8_4
    DOI: 10.1057/9781137281838_4
    as

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