IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/pal/palchp/978-0-230-30644-8_3.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Business Cycle Analysis

In: Economic Forecasting and Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolas Carnot
  • Vincent Koen
  • Bruno Tissot

Abstract

The first step in economic forecasting is to establish the actual position of the economy. This is a prerequisite for a proper forecast of where it is heading (section 2.1). The starting point is therefore the collection of a great variety of economic information with a view to assessing the state of the economy before national accounts data become available, weeks or months later (section 2.2). Survey data can provide precious insights, almost in ‘real time’, and usefully complement the ‘hard data’ due to be released later (section 2.3). Once a range of reasonably comprehensive information has been gathered, the challenge is to make sense of it, by adjusting the raw data in various ways and combining some of them to build summary indicators (section 2.4). In this context, bridge models are especially useful for near-term forecasting purposes (section 2.5). Even so, macroeconomic monitoring involves difficult trade-offs between abundant but often seemingly inconsistent bits of information (section 2.6).

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Carnot & Vincent Koen & Bruno Tissot, 2011. "Business Cycle Analysis," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Economic Forecasting and Policy, edition 0, chapter 2, pages 24-65, Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-0-230-30644-8_3
    DOI: 10.1057/9780230306448_3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-0-230-30644-8_3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.