IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/pal/palchp/978-0-230-30644-8_1.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Introduction

In: Economic Forecasting and Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolas Carnot
  • Vincent Koen
  • Bruno Tissot

Abstract

In the past few years, professional forecasters and those who relay their predictions to the broader public have made the largest forecasting error in their lifetimes. Very few economists foresaw the 2007 financial crisis and the twenty-first century’s first Great Recession. Some of the most prominent policy makers have since confessed that they just could not imagine a scenario as dire as the one that occurred. The former chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, testifying in Congress in October 2008, explained that the Fed failed to forecast a significant nationwide drop in house prices because such a decline had never been observed. With the benefit of hindsight, this shows that disaster myopia may blind even the most sophisticated forecasters. It is all too easy to forget the painful episodes of the past when times look good.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Carnot & Vincent Koen & Bruno Tissot, 2011. "Introduction," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Economic Forecasting and Policy, edition 0, pages 1-4, Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-0-230-30644-8_1
    DOI: 10.1057/9780230306448_1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-0-230-30644-8_1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.