IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/pal/palchp/978-0-230-00581-5_7.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Medium- and Long-Run Projections

In: Economic Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolas Carnot
  • Vincent Koen
  • Bruno Tissot

Abstract

Interest in medium- and long-run projections is on the rise, not least due to concerns about the economic implications of population ageing, but also against the background of the ongoing rebalancing of the global economy towards some large emerging economies, especially in Asia. Medium- and long-run projections differ from the short-run forecasts discussed in previous chapters. Beyond the next few quarters, it is indeed pointless to try and forecast the business cycle. However, it is possible and instructive to look at the underlying trends further out. To differentiate the two types of exercises, the term ‘projection’ tends to replace that of ‘forecasts’ for longer-run horizons. Even so, projections are and should be quantified rather than purely qualitative. In this context, the numbers are not meant to convey what would be an illusory sense of precision. Rather, they serve to illustrate broad trends and to highlight constraints, notably through recourse to alternative scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Carnot & Vincent Koen & Bruno Tissot, 2005. "Medium- and Long-Run Projections," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Economic Forecasting, chapter 7, pages 155-175, Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-0-230-00581-5_7
    DOI: 10.1057/9780230005815_7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-0-230-00581-5_7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.