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Expecting the Future: How AI’s Potential Performance Will Shape Current Behavior

In: Forecasting with Artificial Intelligence

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  • James D. Miller

    (Smith College)

Abstract

This article explores how expectationsExpectations concerningConcern the future of artificial intelligence (AI) might shape economic decision-makingDecision-making. The article discusses the possibility that individuals may save less in anticipation of either extreme wealth or catastrophic outcomesOutcomes resulting from the developmentDevelopment of AI. Additionally, young people may choose to invest less in educationEducation if they believe that AI will make any acquired humanHuman capital obsoleteObsolete before they reach middle age. This article also investigates the possibility of conflict between the US and ChinaChina arising from expectationsExpectations about the militaryMilitary value of AI and the importance of economies of scaleEconomies of scale in AI developmentDevelopment. The possibility that politicians may increase borrowing in anticipation of an AI-related economic boom is also explored.

Suggested Citation

  • James D. Miller, 2023. "Expecting the Future: How AI’s Potential Performance Will Shape Current Behavior," Palgrave Advances in Economics of Innovation and Technology, in: Mohsen Hamoudia & Spyros Makridakis & Evangelos Spiliotis (ed.), Forecasting with Artificial Intelligence, chapter 0, pages 31-45, Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:paiecp:978-3-031-35879-1_2
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-35879-1_2
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