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Age and Earnings in the Labour Market: Implications of the 1980s Labour Bulge

In: Human Resources, Employment and Development Volume 2: Concepts, Measurement and Long-Run Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • W. B. Arthur

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

Abstract

Current theories offer conflicting guidance on how demographic changes in the labour force affect earnings and advancement over the working career. Human capital theory, as reflected in Welch (1978) for example, would predict that larger age cohorts than normal would earn less throughout their careers.1 If, as human-capital theory assumes, earnings are based on productivity, then the increased competition for complementary inputs must lower productivity and hence salaries. Members of larger labour cohorts will therefore have lower age-earnings profiles.

Suggested Citation

  • W. B. Arthur, 1983. "Age and Earnings in the Labour Market: Implications of the 1980s Labour Bulge," International Economic Association Series, in: Paul Streeten & Harry Maier (ed.), Human Resources, Employment and Development Volume 2: Concepts, Measurement and Long-Run Perspective, chapter 21, pages 405-419, Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:intecp:978-1-349-17203-0_21
    DOI: 10.1007/978-1-349-17203-0_21
    as

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