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Testing Keynesian Unemployment Theory against Structuralist Theory: Global Evidence of the Past Two Decades

In: Issues in Contemporary Economics

Author

Listed:
  • Edmund S. Phelps

    (Columbia University)

Abstract

The theory of unemployment accorded the status of orthodoxy in Western macroeconomics — the theory expounded in the textbooks — is, in a word, Keynesian. It derives from (among others) Keynes, Hicks, Tobin, Patinkin, the ‘natural rate’, and either a ‘new microeconomics’ apparatus without rational expectations or a New Keynesian apparatus compatible with rational expectations in order to generate inappropriate responses or inertia in nominal wages or prices. Some would allow hysteresis making the natural rate of unemployment ‘path-dependent’. The monetarists use the same theory, though with different emphases, and in a sense the New Classical theory is a special (and more fully elaborated) case of it. So entrenched has it become in conventional economic thinking that people who know no economics at all have learned, like Samuelson’s parrot, to say ‘weaker demand’ or ‘supply shock’ with every slump no matter how prolonged it is or how obscure its source or sources.

Suggested Citation

  • Edmund S. Phelps, 1991. "Testing Keynesian Unemployment Theory against Structuralist Theory: Global Evidence of the Past Two Decades," International Economic Association Series, in: Marc Nerlove (ed.), Issues in Contemporary Economics, chapter 2, pages 21-41, Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:intecp:978-1-349-11576-1_2
    DOI: 10.1007/978-1-349-11576-1_2
    as

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