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We Won't Be Missed: Work and Growth in the AGI World

In: The Economics of Transformative AI

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  • Pascual Restrepo

Abstract

This chapter explores the long-run implications of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) for economic growth and labor markets. AGI makes it feasible to perform all economically valuable work using compute. I distinguish between bottleneck and supplementary work—tasks that are essential versus non-essential for unhindered growth. As computational resources expand: (i) the economy automates all bottleneck work, (ii) some supplementary work may be left exclusively to humans, (iii) output becomes linear in compute and labor and its growth is driven by the expansion of compute, (iv) wages converge to the opportunity cost of computational resources required to reproduce human work, and (v) the share of labor income in GDP converges to zero.
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Suggested Citation

  • Pascual Restrepo, 2025. "We Won't Be Missed: Work and Growth in the AGI World," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Transformative AI, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:15315
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    Cited by:

    1. Marc Bara, 2025. "Moravec's Paradox and Restrepo's Model: Limits of AGI Automation in Growth," Papers 2509.24466, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • J0 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General

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