The Future Population Health of the Industrialized Countries

The more developed countries are experiencing an inexorable decline with respect to population. Aging is reaching intolerable levels in the economy, both from the active (available workers) and the passive (e.g. health costs, pensions) point of view, redesigning a worrying scenario for the near future. On the other hand, fertility in many countries, and particularly in Italy, reaches such low levels that the prospects of a recovery, in terms of quantity, now seem impractical, unless of socio-demographic upheavals rather unlikely. In this context, most likely, from the point of view of demographic and social, he is starting a new era in which the main actors on the global stage will certainly be different from those in the field today, with completely obscure scenarios and still in the making. Surely, however, this situation has generated fears and concerns about the future of the population, especially for some signals that in the course of 2015 were recorded in Italy, such as the surge in mortality, especially with regard to older ages, where some observers have linked this phenomenon to a reduction in public spending in the health sector, a situation that would have penalized, certainly, the older age groups. On closer analysis, however, we realize that, precisely due to aging of the population of elderly, quotas have gradually increased, causing a swollen available to die, with the same probability of death.