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Notes From Melchior Palyi’S Course, Business Cycle Theory, Economics 333, University Of Chicago, 1933–1934

In: Documents from F. Taylor Ostrander

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  • Warren J. Samuels

Abstract

In his opening methodological lecture, Palyi contrasts correlation, first with statistical analysis, and second with causal analysis and explanation. The students are cautioned that the “Correlation method creates the presumption of an accurateness which it does not in reality possess” and that “Business cycle theories arenotgenerallyapriori– not if worth anything, but areinductionplusinspiration.” One wonders what his answer might have been if queried whethera prioritheoriesof any subjectare “worth anything” and whether “induction plus inspiration” has or creates the presumption of accuracy greater than correlation.

Suggested Citation

  • Warren J. Samuels, 2005. "Notes From Melchior Palyi’S Course, Business Cycle Theory, Economics 333, University Of Chicago, 1933–1934," Research in the History of Economic Thought and Methodology, in: Documents from F. Taylor Ostrander, pages 331-346, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:rhetzz:s0743-4154(05)23110-3
    DOI: 10.1016/S0743-4154(05)23110-3
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