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Inflation Expectations in the U.S. in Fall 1933

In: Research in Economic History


  • Andrew J. Jalil
  • Gisela Rua


We document how inflation expectations evolved in the United States during the fall of 1933 using narrative evidence from historical news accounts and the forecasts of contemporary business analysts. We find that inflation expectations, after rising substantially during the spring of 1933, moderated in the fall in response to mixed messages from the Roosevelt Administration. The narrative accounts and our econometric model connect the dramatic swings in output growth in 1933 – the rapid recovery in the spring and the setback in the fall – to these sudden movements in inflation expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew J. Jalil & Gisela Rua, 2017. "Inflation Expectations in the U.S. in Fall 1933," Research in Economic History, in: Research in Economic History, volume 33, pages 139-169, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:rehizz:s0363-326820170000033005
    DOI: 10.1108/S0363-326820170000033005

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    More about this item


    Inflation expectations; Great Depression; narrative evidence; regime change; E31; E32; E12; N42;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • N42 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-


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