Reclaiming state capacity in the politics of energy transitions: the cautionary tale of Venezuela's predatory transition

This chapter argues that state capacity is fundamental for sustainable transitions to take place. The goal is to warn about the risks that unplanned fossil fuel phase-outs may entail for countries in the Global South. A fossil fuel phase-out must be a piece of a broader puzzle where state capacity is also important. The chapter explores a case where an unintended transition has occurred: Venezuela, a traditional hydrocarbon powerhouse whose oil industry has declined amid increasing authoritarianism, international hostility, and mismanagement. By looking at “actually existing transitions” such as Venezuela’s unplanned and predatory dismantling of the oil industry, it is possible to explain the complexity and non-linearity of climate change struggles. The risks of predatory transitions can lead petro-states to further environmental destruction and social exclusion. The connection between climate change and state capacity shows the need for further studies that can illuminate global economy trends and domestic social and productive linkages that favor more sustainable transitions.