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ARDLDML: Stata module to perform DML-Bounds: ARDL bounds testing for cointegration with many persistent controls

Author

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  • Merwan Roudane

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Abstract

ardldml implements DML-Bounds, the procedure of Villena (2026): a test for a long-run (cointegrating) relationship between depvar and focalvar when the conditioning set is high-dimensional and may itself carry stochastic trends. The classical ARDL bounds test of Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001) brackets one unknown: whether the tested regressors are I(0) or I(1). With a large, persistent control set a second unknown appears. Partialling out controls that carry stochastic trends can absorb part of the long-run variation that identifies the error-correction relation. What then governs the null is not the integration order of the original regressors but the {bf:effective integrated count} k-tilde: the number of stochastic trends that survive residualisation. k-tilde = k puts the null at the classical I(1) endpoint, k-tilde = 0 at the I(0) endpoint, and anything between lands inside the bracket. The procedure has three stages. A balanced first stage projects the differenced outcome on stationary regressors only and the lagged levels on the control levels, cross-fitted over contiguous time blocks separated by an h-observation buffer. The lagged levels are then residualised, and the F form of the Wald test of joint insignificance is computed on the orthogonalised terms. Inference comes from a restricted system wild bootstrap that regenerates the outcome and the focal regressor jointly under the null.

Suggested Citation

  • Merwan Roudane, 2026. "ARDLDML: Stata module to perform DML-Bounds: ARDL bounds testing for cointegration with many persistent controls," Statistical Software Components S459872, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 27 Aug 2026.
  • Handle: RePEc:boc:bocode:s459872
    Note: This module should be installed from within Stata by typing "ssc install ardldml". The module is made available under terms of the GPL v3 (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/gpl-3.0.txt). Windows users should not attempt to download these files with a web browser.
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