Demand for Raw Materials in 2045: Securing Resources, Building the Future. Prospects for Mineral Primary and Secondary Raw Materials

The study examines long-term demand for primary and secondary mineral raw materials in the stone and earth sector, based on various scenarios with regard to overall economic development. Based on projections of GDP, construction volume, the development of economic sectors that demand raw materials, and raw material productivity, differentiated raw material matrices are used to project the expected demand for the years 2030, 2035, 2040, and 2045. Based on this, models are created to show how, for example, the phase-out of coal and the decarbonization of the steel industry will affect the supply of secondary raw materials and thus also the extraction of primary raw materials required to meet the total demand for stone and earth raw materials. This then results in the secondary material quota, which shows the extent to which domestically extracted primary raw materials can be substituted by secondary raw materials in the future. Based on these empirical analyses, an evaluation of existing studies, and expert assessments, the study not only projects the overall economic development and future demand for individual raw materials, but also makes various recommendations for action relevant to the future supply of raw materials.