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Bremen's boom or bust? Zu den Auswirkungen der US-Zollpolitik auf die Bremer Wirtschaft

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  • Berlemann, Michael
  • Sacht, Stephen

Abstract

Die vorliegende Studie befasst sich mit der Frage, wie sich zollpolitische Maßnahmen der Trump-Administration voraussichtlich auf die Wirtschaft Bremens, insbesondere die Bremer Automobilbranche, auswirken würden. Die erratische Politik unter der zweiten Administration Donald Trumps macht es schwierig, den weiteren Kurs der Zollpolitik der Vereinigten Staaten vorauszusehen. Das in der vorliegenden Studie unterstellte US-Zollregime fußt grundsätzlich auf der präsidialen Durchführungsverordnung, welche am 2. April 2025, dem sogenannten "Liberation Day" in Kraft gesetzt wurde.1 Dabei werden zwei fiktive Szenarien betrachtet, deren Realisation nicht unwahrscheinlich erscheint. Beide Szenarien unterstellen reziproke Zölle sowie Gegenzölle auf Grundlage der Executive Order 14257 vom 2. April 2025, inklusive Sonderzölle auf Stahl, Aluminium und Personenkraftwagen von 25%. Im Szenario Eskalation wird davon ausgegangen, dass die vorläufige Einigung zwischen den USA und China, erzielt am 12. Mai 2025, keine dauerhafte Wirkung entfaltet und die weiteren Verhandlungen in einen eskalierenden Handelskrieg zwischen den USA und China führen. Konkret wird in diesem Szenario unterstellt, dass die USA Zollaufschläge auf chinesische Produkte in Höhe von 145% (anstatt 30%) sowie China Gegenzölle von 125% (anstatt 10%) erhebt. Im Szenario Entspannung wird der Handelsdeal vom 12. Mai 2025 hingegen als dauerhaft angenommen, jedoch unterstellt, dass Produkte der Automobilindustrie nicht mit 25%, sondern mit dem jeweiligen in den unterschiedlichen Regionen geltenden, reziproken Zollaufschlag belastet werden. (...)

Suggested Citation

  • Berlemann, Michael & Sacht, Stephen, 2025. "Bremen's boom or bust? Zu den Auswirkungen der US-Zollpolitik auf die Bremer Wirtschaft," HWWI Studies, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI), volume 5, number 321886.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwisd:321886
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    2. Mark Horridge, 2011. "The TERM model and its data base," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-219, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
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