Pasture, grazing, and meat production in Kazakhstan

The rising demand for meat and animal products has strained land resources and created a livestock sector responsible for 20% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, linked to desertification, deforestation, water contamination, and biodiversity loss. Quantifying this strain remains difficult due to livestock mobility and variable grazing intensity. This dissertation focuses on Kazakhstan, a country with vast grasslands and a long pastoralist history, which shifted from transhumant nomadism to Soviet-era sedentary grazing and partially back to mobile systems post-Soviet. Livestock numbers peaked near the end of the Soviet period, declined in the 1990s, and have since rebounded. Overgrazing was common, but restricted movement left distant pastures unused, and the true carrying capacity of Kazakh grasslands remains unclear. With current livestock expansion—especially beef—sustainable (re)use of grasslands is critical. Recurrent fires are key to maintaining biodiversity and ecological function, and grazing influences fire regimes more than climate factors, though this relationship is poorly understood. Kazakhstan’s history offers a unique context to study grazing’s impact on fire occurrence. Part one presents a spatial model assessing grazing demand; in 2015, about half of pastureland was used, mostly at low intensity. A 31% increase in beef production could occur without intensification. Part two correlates grazing intensity (2001–2019) with burned area, controlling for climate variables. Grazing demand showed a strong negative relationship with burned area and explained more variation than climate factors. Part three explores horsemeat as a beef alternative: nutritionally superior, similar in taste, and lower in methane emissions. However, horses require more land, and full conversion would likely reduce overall meat consumption. Horses are well suited to support both meat production and fire mitigation.