Viet Nam’s Transition Pathways: Technology and Innovation for Carbon Neutrality by 2050

Viet Nam faces the dual challenge of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 while sustaining robust economic growth. This study outlines a comprehensive roadmap by analysing cost-optimal energy transition pathways using an integrated energy system model, with a special focus on the strategic role of nuclear power in Viet Nam’s decarbonisation strategy. Part 1: Carbon Neutral Scenario Analysis Three scenarios are explored: Baseline, Carbon Neutral (CN), and Carbon Neutral with High Economic Growth (CN_HighGDP). Both CN scenarios project a steep rise in electricity demand due to accelerated electrification needed to meet decarbonisation targets. Renewables – especially offshore wind – are expected to supply around 70% of electricity by 2050. However, the intermittency of renewables creates spatial and temporal mismatches, necessitating enhanced grid coordination and flexible generation resources. Natural gas is identified as a transition fuel, with a gradual shift toward hydrogen and ammonia. Advanced technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) will be crucial to offset residual emissions. While the total energy system cost will rise significantly, the study highlights the need for phased incentives, public–private partnerships, and international cooperation to accelerate the transition and mitigate economic impact. Part 2: Potential Utilisation of Nuclear Power in Viet Nam Nuclear power is evaluated as a strategic option to ensure long-term energy security and decarbonisation. Against the backdrop of global energy instability and advances in nuclear technologies – such as Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and Integral Fast Reactors (IFRs) – the report calls for a national nuclear roadmap with clear investment signals and public engagement. Key recommendations include rebuilding Viet Nam’s regulatory and human resource capacities, which were weakened after the 2016 suspension of its nuclear programme. Initial deployment could prioritise large reactors at the pre-designated Ninh Thuan site, while SMRs offer additional advantages including improved safety, cost predictability, and flexible siting. Regional cooperation within ASEAN is also essential to ensure technology diversification, manage geopolitical risks, and promote shared nuclear safety and regulatory standards.